< back to main page more posts >

CoronaVirus and India - The Facts, Extrapolations, and Suggestions

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in COVID19, or medicine, or pathology. I am expressing personal opinions which do not reflect the views of any firm I am associated with. Please do not take anything I say as medical, financial, or personal advice.

The CoronaVirus is finally in India. The Indian government has done a commendable job to delay the arrival of corona, and to mitigate the spread of the same.

Given how fast COVID19 spreads, and the many ways it can spread, personally I believe it’s going to be tough to curtail the virus. Here are some thoughts around COVID19 that I’ve had:

Facts ^[1]

1. COVID 19 is very contagious. An infected individual is responsible for directly transmitting the virus to 3.28 other people on average. i.e., in worst cases, the number of cases can literally increase 3 fold due to every single patient.
2. As per current data, around 2% of the cases of COVID19 turn out to be fatal. It may seem minimum, but I’ll point to two things for context: (a) The seasonal influenza has a fatality in 0.1% of cases and (b) 2% of 100 is only 2, but 2% of 100MM people is 2MM people. And we have 7Billion People on this planet. That means unhindered, the virus can potentially be fatal to 140M people.
3. Even if you aren’t a fatal case, there’s about a 15 - 20% chance that your case will be severe on you. And by severe, I mean really severe.^[2]
4. There is no treatment yet, no vaccine, and none of our bodies has built immunity to this virus. It’s a completely new beast we are facing here.

Extrapolations and Opinions

1. We do not have a vaccine, or medicine, or immunity to a virus that spreads to 3 people from 1. Exponential growth is highly probable and the set of humans that can be affected is the entire human population. So as we calculated earlier, we are looking at a potential 140M deaths.
2. If not curtailed, exponential growth like this can lead to number of cases being more than the healthcare infra of our country can handle. That means we will have many deaths more than those due to the virus. Already happening in Italy ^[3]
3. The only current solution is social distancing. By washing your hands regularly, keeping tab of who you interact with, not visiting public / crowded places, and keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from people out in the open, you can reduce the chances of the virus infecting you. This may not prevent you from getting the virus, but it might help delay the spread of the virus, which will allow the heathcare infrastructure to handle it at a good pace.
4. Regardless of a citizen driven social distancing, or a state imposed curfew (a la Italy ^[3]) the economy is going to take a serious hit. Now this is where I’d like to give a few thoughts on how this might pan out for the Indian economy unless proactive steps are taken by the people in charge and the citizenry:
   • The upwardly mobile lower class, and newly minted middle class will be worst hit. Majority of this class would be built on hand to mouth jobs, or daily fluctuating wages, or manufacturing jobs, or so. They will have very little savings, and might even have debt in hand. As people self quarantine, and plan for upcoming rainy days, consumer spending will go down. This strata might be the first victims.
   • As the situation progresses, people will pay only for the necessities. A lot of luxuries of middle class life will take a hit. Non essential consumer businesses will take a hit. As supply chains break, and human resource becomes tough to keep, other industries are hit too. Layoffs will start coming.
   • Layoffs lead to people having to dig into savings to survive through this tough period. National Household Savings go down.
   • The already fragile and breaking debt market might finally collapse, with both individuals and businesses collapsing under insurmountable debt.
   • As fewer people have money to invest, capital markets across the board crack like never before seen. In effect, Social Distancing might just turn out to be an induced recession.
5. Of course, if the spread is completely curtailed, or a vaccine / cure is found in time, the intensity of this might vary. But we have no estimates on either.

Actionable Suggestions

So What can you do as an individual?

1. Don’t Panic
2. Be Aware of the danger, but don’t overreact. Stocking up food at home is only going to make it worse for everyone else who can barely afford daily rations. Buying up masks will only keep them from the healthcare workers and the infected who really need them.
3. Do your part in social distancing to help ease the pressure off off the healthcare professionals.
4. Support small and local businesses and entrepreneurs. Help gig economy workers out. Help your house help. They’re the ones who will be worst hit.

What can startups do?

1. This is a time of high uncertainty. Funding is going to be slow and dry in these times as VCs play the wait and watch game. Cut down on unnecessary costs, At this point focus is on survival, even if it calls for austerity. Who knows, you might find a business model that is profitable without economies of scale.
2. Consumer startups will be hit. If you’re a non essential product, cut back costs. Find ways to earn money through B2B sales than B2C. Margins will be lower, but it will provide some revenue, when consumers might pay close to nothing.
3. Sales cycles across the board are going to become slower. You will need a lot more perseverance to close. Even then recite your ABCs - “Always Be Closing.”
4. This is a great opportunity to hire great talent for cheap. The laid off talent will be looking to do something / anything to survive. There might even be a chip on the shoulder to bring down the incumbent enterprises and management that caused this.
5. Start Up again. We will see many frustrated talented individuals say - I’m tired of being powerless. Some of the best ideas come out of troubled markets.

Concluding Thoughts

I sure hope I’m wrong by a mile in what I’ve said. But even if I’m not, this is a great opportunity for all of us. To build somthing awesome, and world changing. To help others in whatever capacity. To show the strength of the community to come together to solve problems.

Life is Beautiful. Stay Safe, Be Kind. We’ll make it through.

References:

[1] https://staythefuckhome.com/
[2] https://twitter.com/Narrowthefield/status/1238969032528855041?s=20
[3] https://twitter.com/jasonyanowitz/status/1238977743653687296?s=21

Like what you're reading?